Methodological individualism: True and false

I apply Hayek’s distinction between ‘true’ and ‘false’ individualism to methodological individualism. Hayek traced ‘false’ individualism to Cartesian rationalism; Hayek’s rejection of Mises’ praxeology was due to its rationalist underpinnings. The first half of this paper identifies praxeology’s foundational philosophical concepts, emphasising their Cartesian nature, and illustrates how together they constitute a case for methodological individualism: intuition and deduction; reductionism; judgement; dualism. In the second half of this paper, I draw upon philosophy and cognitive science to articulate ‘Hayekian’ (N.B. not Hayek’s) alternatives to these Cartesian concepts. The Hayekian alternative allows a ‘gestalt switch’ from the individual- to the system-level perspective. I therefore suggest that methodological individualism is both true and false: true, in that economic phenomena are grounded in the actions of individuals; false, in that certain problems might be reconceived/discovered at the system-level. I finish by suggesting three avenues of research at system-level: optimisation; stigmergy; computational complexity.     

Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles: sometimes worse than the toss of a coin

Small Business Economics - The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices—from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method...     

INVESTIGATING NONNEUTRALITY IN A STATE-DEPENDENT PRICING MODEL WITH FIRM-LEVEL PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS

In a model with fixed cost of price adjustment and idiosyncratic shocks, two parameterizations match a large set of microeconomic facts, yet display different degrees of nonneutrality. Although there is substantial nonneutrality in both cases, the model does not behave like a time-dependent model, as changes in the distribution of firms account for roughly a third of the short-run response of the price level to a monetary shock. We use the model to examine how aggregating firm behavior can generate flat hazards; we also find that a recently developed steady-state statistic is an imperfect guide to characterizing nonneutrality.     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

Appraisal Accuracy and Automated Valuation Models in Rural Areas

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Accurate and unbiased property value estimates are essential to credit risk management. Along with loan amount, they determine a mortgage’s...     

OPTIONS TO THE REALM: A COST NEUTRAL PROPOSAL TO IMPROVE POLITICAL INCENTIVES

In this article, we draw on the literature on political property rights, political accountability, and strategic management and entrepreneurship to propose a cost neutral reform aimed at promoting long‐run economic prosperity. We propose replacing politicians' defined benefit pensions with a financial contract that is tied to economic performance. In particular, we propose a contract that pays out a lump sum to a politician 30 years after their election if real gross domestic product per capita is above some preset benchmark. Furthermore, we show that the contract can be priced such that it is cost neutral in terms of present value with a defined‐benefit pension. We argue that this contract provides a net benefit to society. (JEL D70, D72)     

Business cycle,storage, and energy prices

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business cycle peaks generate negative interest-adjusted bases and positive returns. In recessions, the bases become positive, and the average returns are negative. Our regression results also show that the interest-adjusted bases of energy commodities are counter-cyclical and the expected returns are pro-cyclical. For petroleum commodities, inventory has a significant effect on interest-adjusted bases at low levels of inventory, whereas at high inventory levels the effect of inventory on the bases is weak. Finally, we find that the bases and economic conditions predict spot returns in energy commodity markets.     

Mapping the university technology transfer process

Transfer of technologies from the universities to the private sector is increasingly regarded as playing a significant role in new business starts, growth of existing businesses, and new job creation. Further, there are monerous models describing the process of technology transfer. Some of the existing models represent this process as a linear progression of steps: from idea generation and technology development at the university, to patenting the technology and then establishing a university-private firm link through a formal search process. The process culminates in patent rights transfer. Other models describe technology transfer in terms of networking arrangements and emphasize not so much formal search as the role of long-term relationships between the two parties. Still other studies indicate that it is possible to combine the two approaches—formal search and informal networking arrangements—to ensure successful transfer.Business firms involved in transfer also may be classified into several groups. Transfer could occur between the university and an established firm, between the university and a recently created new venture, or transfer could result in the creation of a new company. Technology, for example, could be transferred to a large company that uses the transferred technology as a basis for just one of many product lines, or to a small firm that makes the transferred technology a cornerstone of its product strategy.Are there any differences among the transfer processes used when large or small firms are involved, or when technology is transferred to an existing company, or results in the creation of a new firm? To address these questions, we mapped the technology transfer processes of 23 different technologies developed at the University of Minnesota from 1983 to 1993.More than half of the technologies studied went to large companies and were used either to upgrade existing products or to extend existing product lines. In eight cases technologies were transferred to small firms. In three cases technologies were transferred to venture capital firms or intermediaries and had not been commercialized at the time the study was completed. In the rest of the cases new firms were created by the inventors/university scientists themselves and served as vehicles for marketing their inventions. None of the firms of the latter group have grown beyond a part-time employment opportunity for the inventors, and only one firm provided evidence that additional hiring would be necessary in the near future.Only four cases involved transfers of technologies that have been developed and patented by the university to firms that did not have any relationships with the university prior to the transfer. In these four cases the firms used some form of search strategy to find a needed technology. However, there is no evidence that any of the firms had a well-developed formal search procedure. In the overwhelming majority of cases some form of relationship existed between the university (or individual inventors) and the private firm prior to the transfer. These relationships ranged from long-term friendships and/or cooperation to such less involved forms as interaction at research seminars and university-sponsored events. Further, in four cases, the technologies were initially developed by private companies, whereas the university's role was to assist in refinement or testing of the technology.The research yielded a number of additional findings that deserve further investigation and discussion. Specifically, the study did not provide any evidence that the successfully completed technology transfers made any substantial contribution to either new business creation or the generation of new jobs. This finding suggests that scholars and policy makers should proceed with caution before accepting a notion that new or high technology firms will have any direct economic impact.The study findings hold specific implications for entrepreneurial behavior and public policy. The “formal search and shopping” for a technology model suggests that both business and academic/government laboratories publicize, respectively, their requirements and offerings, and that opportunities for creative brokerage ought to exist. We found that in the majority of cases technology was transferred not through formal search, but through some prior relationships among individuals. This observation suggests that the ability to build extended networks of relationships not only within the business world but also with the university community is an important skill that owners and managers of the technology-based businesses need to possess. Entrepreneurs seeking to start businesses based on new technologies may need to reevaluate how much of their limited time to allocate to build and maintain networks and cooperative relationships, and how much time to shop for new technologies through formal channels. Further, public policy and the efforts of the university transfer agencies intended to facilitate transfer may need to shift their emphasis from facilitating “shopping” by organizing and/or paying for “publicity” (which is currently the major emphasis) to providing assistance in network building and relationship marketing efforts.